Revenue methodology
Every trending card shows a revenue number in one of two states. Here's the math behind both.
How EST. REVENUE is calculated
For videos with a strong vendor CTA, we estimate revenue based on:
- Intent comment count (parsed from actual comments)
- A $1.09 per-intent-comment baseline (calibrated from a verified vendor funnel over a 28-day window)
- CTA quality, niche, and video age multipliers
est_revenue = intent_comment_count
× $1.09
× cta_quality_multiplier (strong 1.4 / moderate 1.0 / weak 0.6)
× niche_multiplier (cologne 1.4, vendor lists 1.5, education 1.5, etc.)
× recency_multiplier (0–7d: 1.8, 8–14d: 1.1, 15–30d: 0.8, then decay)
Estimates assume the ViralResell system is running. Actual revenue varies based on funnel execution, audience quality, and external factors.
How POTENTIAL revenue is calculated
For videos without a CTA, we estimate what the video could have earned if a vendor CTA had been added.
The math:
- Take the video's view count
- Apply a 0.8% comment-conversion baseline (conservative estimate based on a verified vendor funnel — we use a slightly lower rate than the calibrated 1.43% to account for the uncertainty in extrapolating)
- Adjust by content type — some formats drive comment intent better than others
- Multiply by our $1.09 per-intent-comment baseline
potential_revenue = views
× 0.008 (0.8% comment-conversion baseline, conservative)
× $1.09
× content_type_multiplier (vendor 1.0, unboxing 0.9, meetup 0.7, etc.)
Honest caveats:
- This assumes you replicate the source video's view count, which depends on your account and timing
- Audiences vary — your version may convert higher or lower than the average
- These are directional estimates of opportunity size, not financial guarantees
Use POTENTIAL revenue to compare opportunity size between viral videos, not as a promise of earnings.
Confidence dots
Both states show a colored dot indicating how confident we are in the estimate: